Super Tuesday Preview, 1/31/08
Man, I’m glad I waited a couple of days to do this. Or maybe I’m not. I can’t recall an election when so many things were coalescing on any one point in time:
View ArticleObama is a Mac
You've probably seen some version of this before......Hillary as the outdated, clunky and corporate PC, and Obama as the modern, sleek, and independent Macintosh. It's a meme that might or might not...
View ArticleObama's Commanding Lead in Newspaper Endorsements
I know, I know: the last thing we need is another diary on the subject of endorsements. But since my literal and figurative buzz from the Super Bowl is too much for me to do anything useful, I figured...
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Final Super Tuesday Projection, 2/5/08
This is simply going to be a thumbnail version of what I did last week. No time for all those fancy charts and graphs, but I'd feel remiss if I didn't give it my best shot.
View ArticleUPDATED x10: Obama CLAIMS DELEGATE WIN, wins Missouri, leads 13 states to 8
Looks like Missouri could be Obama's big symbolic victory after all.MSNBC and CNN report:Obama 387,064 Hillary 383,85397% reportingI'm going to look at what the outstanding counties are but last I...
View ArticleDoes the Clinton campaign really have money problems?
Yes -- in all probability. But, that doesn't mean that the events of the past 24 hours haven't been orchestrated in some respect. Let me explain how I see this.Here's what we know about the financial...
View ArticleWhat's an Obama State? With February predictions.
So, rather than trying to do things subjectively as I did last time around, I'm going to take a slightly different tact this time around. We've had 26 states participate in DNC-sanctioned contests so...
View ArticleSenate States: Advantage Obama
There has been an increasing about of back-and-forth about the meaning of victories in various primary and caucus states. Do blue states matter more than red states? Do a couple of big states matter...
View ArticleHillary Clinton's Two-Front War
The basic dilemma the Clinton campaign faces is that it is now in effect fighting a two-front war. On one front, they now trail substantially in elected delegates. Chris Bowers puts the count at...
View ArticleA Brief History of Superdelegates
To understand the origin of superdelegates, you have to understand one thing: George McGovern and the 1972 election. But let's first step back and frame things a little bit.The superdelegate system...
View ArticleObama is getting screwed by the delegate math
OK, so the title is deliberately a little bit inflammatory. But there's a little bit of a meme out there that because, for example, Obama won more delegates in Nevada while losing the popular vote,...
View ArticleThe RNC's devastating five-point attack plan on Barack Obama
Jeff Resner at Politico.com has the scoop (via Ben Smith). The RNC has a potentially devastating 5-point attack plan on Barack Obama, which speaks to the risk of nominating a candidate who is not...
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NYT Story Uniting Conservatives around McCain
My friends, I don't know what media you're consuming with your morning coffee, but if you're looking at anything even vaguely on the conservative side of the ledger, you'll find that the New York Times...
View ArticleHillary! The Movie!
Cut to scene of Hillary Clinton (Meryl Streep) debating furiously with advisers Mandy Grunwald (Parker Posey) and Mark Penn (Oliver Platt) before the Big State Debate. Penn/Platt, urging a "nuclear"...
View ArticleGeneral Election Projections, Beta Version
Hi all,This will be the first of what I hope will become a semi-regular installment of electoral projections for the general election. For the time being, I am including matchups of John McCain...
View ArticleJust 24% of Florida Dems want primary results to stand
Sorry in advance for the relatively substance-less diary, but I came across something interesting in my daily scan for general election polls. It is a poll from the Mason-Dixon polling agency asking...
View ArticleDEVELOPING: Clinton threatening lawsuit over TX caucuses?
This is going to be a cut-and-paste job.McClatchy Newspapers' Jay Root is reporting in the Kansas City Star that the Clinton campaign may have threatened to pursue legal action against the Texas...
View ArticlePollster Report Card
So, I've been a fair amount of work on how to weight polls from different pollsters and from different periods of time. It beats what I consider to the the depressing tenor of the Democratic campaign...
View ArticleDon't get even, get MAD
It occurs to me that, over the course of the past several weeks, we have been engaged in asymmetrical warfare in the Democratic Primary. Obama has the stronger position by most of the conventional...
View ArticleGeneral Election Projections, Survey USA Rules Edition
I do have a couple of leftover diary ideas about the primaries -- hint: I think the Clintons are bluffing if they say they don't want revotes in Florida and Michigan -- but in the meantime, there's no...
View ArticleThe Florida/Michigan Equation
One of my diary drafts is entitled "The Florida/Michigan Revote Card, and the State of the Race". The diary was going to argue that holding fresh primary votes in both Florida and Michigan was...
View ArticleMoving Beyond the Big Three
Cross-posted at fivethirtyeight.com, which is my new, semi-continually updated blog on polling and electoral math for the 2008 general election. For at least eight years now, Democrats have told...
View ArticleMark Penn's latest microtarget: Dittoheads
There have been a couple of good diaries lately on the so-called Limbaugh Effect on the most recent set of Democratic primaries. I would particularly recommend John K. Wilson's work. I find his data...
View ArticleOne of the silliest things I've seen in recent times
(From Friday's Philadelphia Inquirer:)Gov. Rendell, Mayor Nutter and two of Hillary Rodham Clinton's top aides yesterday blasted Barack Obama's campaign for allegedly diminishing and disrespecting...
View ArticleWhat Obama can't say about Reverend Wright
It occurs to me that there is more to the controversy over Jeremiah Wright's remarks than meets the eye -- but not in the dark ways that bloggers like Jerome Armstrong would opportunistically seem to...
View ArticleThe Six Types of Voters
(cross-posted at fivethirtyeight.com)Although the story hasn't quite yet broken through to the dead-tree media, some influential online writers are starting to pick up upon the fact that strength in...
View ArticleWright and the Obamacans
(Cross-posted at fivethirtyeight.com)One of the many nice things about Survey USA is the extensive set of interactive cross-tabulations that they release with every poll. Survey USA has now released...
View ArticleIt's the Moving Goalposts, Stupid
Quite honestly, I've been getting annoyed with certain kinds of diaries around here. These are the diaries that insist that Hillary Clinton should withdraw from the Presidential race. Hillary has...
View ArticleClinton and the authenticity card
Authenticity is a rather subjective concept. Attempts to define it usually wind up running around in circles:This eye-opening but muddled volume tells companies to remain true to self or, at least, to...
View ArticleRasmussen, Survey USA, Enthusiasm and Likely Voters
Rasmussen and Survey USA are responsible for the vast majority of polling data that we've seen so far on the general election. Fortunately for us, they also happen to be two of the historically most...
View ArticleHalperin: Hillary doesn't think the black guy can win
Before we dive into this, let me say what this is not. It's not any kind of a gaffe, or any kind of a "gotcha" moment. It's my interpretation of a journalist's interpretation of some conversations...
View ArticleThe Momentumless Primary
A week ago, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by 10 points in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. I asked the readers at fivethirtyeight.com whether they expected today's poll -- it's April 6th -- to show a...
View ArticleContemplating the Unity Bounce
Chuck Todd opines that the general election numbers for the Democrats are presently at their floor:Currently polls show McCain either narrowly ahead or even with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama....
View ArticleReport: Carter, Gore to endorse Obama, or ask Clinton to concede
This report is from the Scotsman, the same paper that published Samatha Power's "monster" comments.It is a credible paper, but as a foreign source, it probably deserves an extra level of scrutiny.Note...
View ArticleLocal AFSCME leaders stage demonstrations outside PA Obama offices
I'm not really sure whether this is a at all a big deal, but I thought it was worth posting.Apparently, AFSCME organizers staged a series of demonstrations outside Obama headquarters in Pittsburgh,...
View ArticleDear George
This might seem strange coming from someone who runs a website dedicated to the horse race elements of the campaign. But George Stephanapolous has it wrong in his interview today with TPM's Greg...
View ArticleFacts and myths about late deciders
EDIT: Data excluded Arkansas before and has been fixed.Yesterday, I presented a case that late deciders in Pennsylvania might be more inclined to break toward Hillary Clinton. This conclusion, indeed,...
View ArticleSurveyUSA-PA: Clinton +6; Quinnipiac: Clinton+7
http://www.nbc10.com/...Obama closes gap from 14 points to 6. Survey USA is now highly consistent with other polls of the state.The survey concluded that Clinton will finish with 50 percent, 6...
View ArticleClinton's Popular Vote Math
Let's start by looking at the state of the popular vote, since those are the only metrics that Hillary Clinton has any realistic shot of winning.Below is a table of the remaining primaries, and...
View ArticleBayh nets Obama 31 New Superdelegates
Apologies if this has been blogged already, but I just noticed that Evan Bayh, Clinton surrogate extraordinaire, has declared that Superdelegates should follow the will of their constituents.The...
View ArticleKrugman calls out Clinton on the gas tax ... or not [UPDATED]
I'd have to say that for all the different ways that the Clinton campaign has irked me over the course of this campaign, for the most part Hillary Clinton has avoided putting out specious policy...
View ArticleJim Geraghty reveals his hand
The National Review seems to particularly enjoy blogging about Jeremiah Wright. I can sort of imagine the gang watching Wright's performance together, as they sip on a morning Chablis and kick their...
View ArticleVoters v Media: a concerning result
The MSNBC evening lineup (especially Road to the White House) gave a fair amount of play tonight to a couple of results from the new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll. This was sort of like a non-partisan...
View ArticleLouisville Courier-Journal Endorses Obama
The Louisville Courier-Journal -- the largest newspaper in Kentucky and one which has significant readership in Southern Indiana -- has just endorsed Barack Obama in advance of the Indiana and Kentucky...
View ArticleLimbaugh calls for Hoosiers to break law
Rush Limbaugh has re-initiated "Operation Chaos" after briefly placing it on "pause", asking his listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primaries in order to prolong the Democratic...
View ArticleAdventures in Lannyland
Lanny Davis, annotated: Here are two important neutral principles that should guide the Democratic National Committee’s Rules Committee when it meets May 31 to decide whether to seat the Michigan and...
View ArticleGuess Who's Blogging for the National Press Club?
I was directed today to the writings of Steve O'Hearn, the chair of the National Press Club's New Media Committee who maintains a blog at the National Press Club's blogging website. Suffice it to say...
View ArticleGo Team PUMA!
I am going to put absolutely no effort into this diary so as to ensure that it is not recommended. Instead, please recommend diaries like this one, because while the polling stuff is fun (and so is...
View ArticleZogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website
(cross-posted at FiveThirtyEight.com)The conservative website HowObamaGotElected.com reports that it has commissioned Zogby International to conduct a poll of 512 Barack Obama voters as part of what...
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Opposing the Senate Bill is Batflippin' Crazy [UPDATED]
(cross-post from FiveThirtyEight.com)Pick your subheadline:a) It's time to stop being polite and start getting real. b) Here's hoping a picture is worth 1,000 words.Any questions?OK, I imagine that...
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